epidemix-An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission

Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing policy questions, especially through the assessment of the trajectory and scale of outbreaks, and the evaluation of control interventions. However, their mathematical formulation means that they may appear as a “black box” to those without the appropriate mathematical background. This may lead to a negative perception of their utility for guiding policy, and generate expectations, which are not in line with what these models can deliver. It is therefore important for policymakers, as well as public health and animal health professionals and researchers who collaborate with modelers and use results generated by these models for policy development or research purpose, to understand the key concepts and assumptions underlying these models. The software application epidemix (http://shinyapps.rvc.ac.uk) presented here aims to make mathematical models of disease transmission accessible to a wider audience of users. By developing a visual interface for a suite of eight models, users can develop an understanding of the impact of various modelling assumptions – especially mixing patterns – on the trajectory of an epidemic and the impact of control interventions, without having to directly deal with the complexity of mathematical equations and programming languages. Models are compartmental or individual-based, deterministic or stochastic, and assume homogeneous or heterogeneous-mixing patterns (with the probability of transmission depending on the underlying structure of contact networks, or the spatial distribution of hosts). This application is intended to be used by scientists teaching mathematical modelling short courses to non-specialists – including policy makers, public and animal health professionals and students – and wishing to develop hands-on practicals illustrating key concepts of disease dynamics and control

Understanding human behaviour in flight operation using eye-tracking technology

A clear understanding of how the pilot processes the information in the cockpit while carrying out particular tasks is crucial for developing the Human-Machine Interface and inceptors that help reduce pilot workload. Eye-tracking data synchronised with aircraft dynamics data is used here to study the high-workload scenario of executing an offset landing in an engineering flight simulator. The study focused on identifying differences in behavioural patterns between line pilots and test pilots. Evidence for significant differences were found regarding the ability to multitask and monitor aircraft states. The research output will lead to reduction of the pilot’s workload and, in further study, proposition of a new display setups and inceptors.European Union funding: POWR.03.02.00-00-I029. Co-financed by the European Union through the European Social Fun

Human performance and strategies while solving an aircraft routing and sequencing problem: an experimental approach

As airport resources are stretched to meet increasing demand for services, effective use of ground infrastructure is increasingly critical for ensuring operational efficiency. Work in operations research has produced algorithms providing airport tower controllers with guidance on optimal timings and sequences for flight arrivals, departures, and ground movement. While such decision support systems have the potential to improve operational efficiency, they may also affect users’ mental workload, situation awareness, and task performance. This work sought to identify performance outcomes and strategies employed by human decision makers during an experimental airport ground movement control task with the goal of identifying opportunities for enhancing user-centered tower control decision support systems. To address this challenge, thirty novice participants solved a set of vehicle routing problems presented in the format of a game representing the airport ground movement task practiced by runway controllers. The games varied across two independent variables, network map layout (representing task complexity) and gameplay objective (representing task flexibility), and verbal protocol, visual protocol, task performance, workload, and task duration were collected as dependent variables. A logistic regression analysis revealed that gameplay objective and task duration significantly affected the likelihood of a participant identifying the optimal solution to a game, with the likelihood of an optimal solution increasing with longer task duration and in the less flexible objective condition. In addition, workload appeared unaffected by either independent variable, but verbal protocols and visual observations indicated that high-performing participants demonstrated a greater degree of planning and situation awareness. Through identifying human behavior during optimization problem solving, the work of tower control can be better understood, which, in turn, provides insights for developing decision support systems for ground movement management

A Manifesto Concerning the Legal Protection of Computer Programs

Rationale: There is conflicting evidence on whether patients with asthma experience an accelerated decline in lung function with age. We examined the association between postbronchodilator lung function, asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS), and atopy with age using a large European sample. Methods: In 17 centers in 11 European countries, case control studies were nested within representative cross-sectional surveys of adults aged less than 75 years. Representative samples of participants with asthma, CRS or both and controls were assessed for postbronchodilator ventilatory function, smoking history, atopy, and treatment. Multiple regression was used to assess the interactive effects of age and diagnostic group on decline in postbronchodilator ventilatory function. Results: A total of 3337 participants provided adequate data (778 with asthma, 399 with CRS, 244 with both asthma and CRS and 1916 controls who had neither asthma nor CRS). Participants with asthma had lower FEV1/FVC (-4.09% (95% CI: -5.02, -3.15, P < 0.001) and a steeper slope of FEV1/FVC against age (-0.14%/annum [95%CI: -0.19, -0.08]) equivalent to smoking 1-2 packs of cigarettes per day. Those with atopy had a slope equivalent to controls. Conclusions: People with asthma have a steeper decline in postbronchodilator lung function with age, but neither CRS nor atopy alone were associated with such decline

An Empirical Comparison of Consumer Innovation Adoption Models: Implications for Subsistence Marketplaces

So called “pro-poor” innovations may improve consumer wellbeing in subsistence marketplaces. However, there is little research that integrates the area with the vast literature on innovation adoption. Using a questionnaire where respondents were asked to provide their evaluations about a mobile banking innovation, this research fills this gap by providing empirical evidence of the applicability of existing innovation adoption models in subsistence marketplaces. The study was conducted in Bangladesh among a geographically dispersed sample. The data collected allowed an empirical comparison of models in a subsistence context. The research reveals the most useful models in this context to be the Value Based Adoption Model and the Consumer Acceptance of Technology model. In light of these findings and further examination of the model comparison results the research also shows that consumers in subsistence marketplaces are not just motivated by functionality and economic needs. If organizations cannot enhance the hedonic attributes of a pro-poor innovation, and reduce the internal/external constraints related to adoption of that pro-poor innovation, then adoption intention by consumers will be lower